Han Yingyue’s interest rate hike is expected to disrupt market gold bulls slim-www.gdosta.org.cn

Han Yingyue: interest rate is expected to disturb the market, gold long dim, the client to see the latest market, since August, the focus of the market is focused on the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations change, the Fed interest rate hike is expected ups and downs, the market volatility amplification. At present, the market generally expected the Fed will not raise interest rates at the September meeting, before the Fed’s September interest rate meeting, the interest rate expectations will continue to fluctuate. Because the U.S. stocks fell sharply, resulting in greater volatility in global financial markets, based on this, the Fed meeting in September before and after the re release is less likely to raise interest rates signal, even if the market for machine counter, but its persistent bias, limited space. Han Yingyue believes that the Fed interest rate hike will become an important risk point in the second half of the financial market, and even become the main line of leading market sentiment. In September this month, the 21 US Federal Reserve will carry out interest rate meeting, the U.S. data previously disappointing, the market is expected to increase the probability of low interest rate in September. But the voices of senior officials in the US and Japan have shown great divergence and caused turmoil in the global financial markets. In particular, once the hawkish argument emerges, the demand for market security immediately reflects the demand for hedge assets such as gold, bonds, and so on. Changes in the market for the FOMC decision under, Han Yingyue believes that if the Fed does not raise interest rates in September, December or so before the four quarter of the market uncertainty will increase the volatility of funds at the end of the three season will spend smoothly; if the Fed rate hike in September, then the end of the three quarter financial volatility will increase substantially, does not exclude the possibility of domestic monetary policy short-term enhancement. But this also reduces the uncertainty of the latter, and the risk aversion in the fourth quarter will ease considerably. Tuesday (13 September) to the international spot gold fell slightly, although the Fed governor Brainard’s speech on Monday that the Fed rate hike is expected to cool down, gold decline eased, but the United States that continued to be strong, but made gold bearing long scruples, so the gold for two consecutive days to maintain low volatility, the highest price of gold on Tuesday hit 1330 line. But the two hit 1332 no breakthrough, formation blocked down, directly out of the shock down, the lowest test line 1314. Although the market has been in September the probability of interest rate hike down, but the possibility of interest rate hike has not been eliminated, so gold will not reduce the pressure in the short term. Tuesday crude oil, the international oil price shocks weaken, taking most of the gains overnight, U.S. crude oil futures fell more than 2% in October to $45.04 a barrel, Brent crude oil futures in November hit a low of $47.18 a barrel, although the overnight dollar weakness has helped the rise in oil prices, but the Bulls soon profits, because the fundamentals are still at the plight of IEA (International Department of energy) released monthly in the display, slowing demand for crude oil, OPEC supply is still increasing, excess supply will remain on the first half of 2017, also has weighed on oil prices. Technical analysis: gold from on line for five consecutive Yinxian, experienced in the positive stimulus of gold was above the 1350 mark, but Fed officials to raise interest rates in September to discuss the problem of problem, makes gold road rebound halted, the gold bull before the king lost, week 1320 mark repeatedly finally did not test.

韩颖玥:加息预期扰乱市场 黄金多头渺茫 客户端 查看最新行情   自8月以来,市场把焦点都集中在了美联储加息预期的变化上,美联储加息预期上下起伏,市场波动放大。目前来看,市场普遍预期美联储在9月会议上不会加息,在美联储9月议息会议之前,加息预期仍会上下起伏。因美股大幅下跌,对全球金融市场造成较大波动,基于这一点,美联储在9月会议前后再度释放加息信号的可能性较小,即便市场获机反抽,但其持续性偏差,空间有限。韩颖玥认为,美联储加息事件将成为下半年金融市场的重要风险点,甚至成为主导市场情绪的主线索。   本月于9月21日美联储将进行议息会议,此前发布的美国数据令人失望,市场预期9月加息概率较低。但近日美联储高官的言论显示分歧较大,并引起全球金融市场动荡。尤其是一旦有鹰派论调浮现,市场避险需求即刻反映,黄金、债券等避险资产需求也相应增加。对于美联储议息决议之下的市场变化,韩颖玥认为如果美联储9月不加息,那么12月之前或者四季度的市场不确定性将增加,三季末的资金波动将平稳度过;如果美联储9月加息,那么三季末的资金波动将大幅增加,不排除国内货币政策短期增强的可能。但是,这也降低了后期的不确定性,四季度的避险情绪将大幅缓解。   周二(9月13)国际现货黄金继续小幅下挫,虽然周一美联储理事布雷纳德的讲话令美联储加息预期降温,黄金跌势有所缓解,但美指持续走强,却又令得金价承压多头有所顾忌,因此黄金连续两日维持低位震荡,周二金价最高触及1330一线,但两次冲击1332没有突破,形成受阻回落,直接走出震荡下行,最低测试1314一线。尽管市场目前已将9月加息的几率下调,但加息的可能性并未消除,因此黄金短期内压力不会减少。原油方面,周二国际油价震荡走弱,回吐了隔夜大部分涨幅,美原油10月期货一度跌逾2%至45.04美元 桶,布伦特原油11月期货最低触及47.18美元 桶,虽然隔夜美元走弱曾帮助油价上涨,但多头很快获利了结,因基本面仍处困境,IEA(国际能源署)发布月报中显示,原油需求放缓,OPEC供给仍在增加,供应过剩状态将维持对2017年上半年,亦对油价有所打压。   技术面分析:   现货黄金从日线上看连续收取五根阴线,在经历非农利好刺激下金价一度攻上1350关口之上,但美联储官员对于9月加息问题讨论的问题,使得金价反弹之路戛然而止,黄金多头前景迷茫,周内1320关口试探多次终于没有支撑住,早间急跌1313低位,似乎看到了探底回升的希望,上方1330若不能有效站稳,反弹也许只是昙花一现,下方1300关口或将不保,主图上boll走平中,MA5,MA10死叉向下密集于中轨的1328一线阻力位,STO高位死叉进入超卖区,操作上韩颖玥建议保持高空为主,但不可盲目低位追空。   近日原油受各大消息面的影响继续承压,昨日亚欧盘时段油价一路走低,到下午四点IEA月报公布,月报称将其全球原油消费需求预期增速下调,对于当前脆弱的油市来讲,无疑雪上加霜,油价受消息面的影响继续扩大跌幅,直到晚间美盘时段有所反弹。虽然早间公布的最新API数据利多原油,令原油小幅增长,但依旧可以看出油价依旧承压继续震荡,在多重因素消息面的刺激下,技术面显得有些力不从心,从日线上来看,布林带小幅缩口运行,K线运行于布林带中上轨之间,短周期均线向下运行,行情指标MACD于0轴附近黏合运行,更多策略详情关注公众号韩颖玥,绿色动能即将消失殆尽,随机行情行情指标KDJ平行运行,从小时线来看BOLL行情行情指标有收口迹象,K线行情行情指标处于45.25布林带中下轨通道内运行,并且MACD行情行情指标快慢线有形成金叉向上延伸,综合来看,今日行情将会有所反弹,但是总体行情行情走势仍然指向空头,晚间EIA如期而至,日内操作韩颖玥建议高空为主,低位多单为辅。   现货黄金部分操作建议:   1,反弹1325-1328做空,止损3个点,目标1320-1318-1315   2,回踩1310-1312一线短多,止损4个点,看1318-1320一线   美原油部分操作建议:   1、45.8-46.0一线做空,止损0.3个点,目标45.0-44.8   2、44.6-44.7一线做多,止损0.4个点,目标45.3-45.5 新浪声明:新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。相关的主题文章: