Ma Guangyuan 6 months after the China real estate market may change-kamikaze love

Ma Guangyuan: may Chinese real estate market 6 months after the change after 6 months, the real estate market may change China review: outside of the interpretation of purchase seem to agree: must get the house before the purchase. The | Ma Guangyuan thump the most serious subject economists embarrassing is swollen in the market, to deviate from the theme of the inventory policy at the same time, cooling hot city re resorted to, whether the purchase of credit limit, or, as the future trend of reverse index. This price rise logic is basically clear: to the inventory of real estate policy is the first push, became the biggest boost for the steady growth of money coming out of high leverage, resulting in "the most expensive land" frequent, with no end, timely adjustment of the land policy has been enhanced to the expected prices. Data map. China restriction policy in 2014 after the abolition of less than two years, have been hot every second city again. After the introduction of the restriction policy in September 18th in Hangzhou, the property market in the hot second tier cities really ushered in the inflection point of the policy this year. Despite the September 18th introduction of the implementation of the "Hangzhou policy" and the purchase of part of the region previously Nanjing, Xiamen, Suzhou City, has been quite gentle, but the investment of non household population in Hangzhou purchase policy, in the city within the scope of the purchase of the suspension to have 1 or more housing units and non city residence households the sale of housing, the purchase of housing including new and second-hand housing, the household registration in the city residents is not in the purchase list. Text with map. However, the "soft" restriction policy is the same as the effects of some previous cities, which means panic buying is triggered when the purchase is limited. According to the number of transactions, as of September 18th, 24, Hangzhou new housing and second-hand housing total turnover of 5105 sets, of which 3265 new homes, second-hand housing 1840 sets, hit a record high. Even developers with POS machines, rushed to Shanghai, let customers swipe cards. Every purchase order has almost evolved into the starting gun that continues to rise and panic buying. This year, almost all of the cities that have restricted the purchase are. From the first tier cities of Shanghai and Shenzhen in March restriction, then to Xiamen, Wuhan and other second tier cities to join, the interpretation of the purchase of the world seems to have reached a consensus: must rush to grab the house before the purchase. From the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on 19 large and medium cities in August, the price data of 70, see, indeed. In August, the number of residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities increased by 6 compared with July, and the prices of new houses and second-hand housing prices rose by 64 and 57 respectively, which increased by 13 and respectively compared with the previous month. Among the 64 cities with new commodity housing prices rising, there were 31 cities with an increase of 5.6% over the previous month, and 25 of the cities rose more than 1%, with Zhengzhou rising at the first place. Second hand housing prices rose in the 57 cities, the city expanded last month, there are 30, or more than 1% of the city has 18, the highest increase of 4.5%. The performance of the real estate market this year and the real estate policy

马光远:6个月后中国房地产市场可能变天   6个月后,中国房地产市场可能变天   导读:外界对限购的解读似乎达成了共识:必须赶在限购之前抢到房子。   文 | 马光远 扑腾话最标肿的正经经济学家   尴尬的是,在市场偏离去库存主题的同时,热点城市重新祭出的降温政策,无论是限购,还是限贷,都成了解读未来走势的反向指标。   今年房价上涨的逻辑就基本清楚了:去库存的房地产政策是第一推手,为稳增长释放出来的货币成了最大的助力,高杠杆拿地导致“地王”频出,最后,没有及时调整的土地政策大大强化了未来房价上涨的预期。 资料图。   中国的限购政策在2014年取消后,不到两年时间,又相继在炙手可热的各个二线城市重出江湖。在9月18日杭州出台限购政策之后,今年热点二线城市的楼市真正迎来了政策的拐点。   尽管9月18日出台的《杭州部分区域实施限购政策》和以前南京、厦门、苏州等城市比,已经算相当温柔,只是对非杭州户籍人口的投资性限购,政策规定在市区限购范围内暂停向拥有1套及以上住房的非本市户籍居民家庭出售住房,限购房源包括新房和二手房,对本市户籍的居民并不在本次限购之列。 原文配图。   然而,这个被评价为“温柔”的限购政策和以前一些城市引发的效果是一样的,那就是,限购一出,就引发了恐慌式的抢购。根据交易的数字,截至9月18日24时,杭州新房和二手房总共成交5105套,其中新房3265套,二手房1840套,创下了历史新高。甚至有开发商拿着POS机,赶到上海让客户刷卡。   每一次限购令,几乎都演变成继续上涨和抢购的发令枪,今年出台限购的城市,几乎都如此。从一线城市上海和深圳3月份限购,到后来厦门、武汉等二线城市加入,外界对限购的解读似乎达成了共识:必须赶在限购之前抢到房子。从国家统计局19日发布的8月份70个大中城市房价数据看,的确如此。   8月份70个大中城市住宅销售价格上涨的城市个数环比和同比都比7月份明显增加,新房和二手房价格环比上涨的城市分别有64个和57个,分别比上月增加13个和6个。新建商品住宅价格环比上涨的64个城市中,比上月涨幅扩大的城市有31个,涨幅在1%以上的城市有25个,郑州以5.6%的涨幅居于首位。二手住宅价格环比上涨的57个城市中,比上月涨幅扩大的城市有30个,涨幅在1%以上的城市有18个,最高涨幅为4.5%。   今年房地产市场火热的表现和房地产政策周期性转变之快,令很多人感到意外。众所周知,今年房地产的主题是“去库存”,但从目前整个房地产市场的表现看,已经完全背离了这个主题,需要去库存的三四线城市没有太大的起色,不存在库存问题的一二线城市在政策的刺激下大涨,涨幅之大之快超越了很多人的想象,引发了整个市场的恐慌。 原文配图   在3月份上海和深圳采取调控措施之后,热点迅速向苏州、合肥、南京、厦门“四小龙”蔓延,然后进一步向杭州、东莞、武汉、郑州、惠州等城市接力传递。过去不起眼的合肥,连续4个月占据70个大中城市房价涨幅的首位,而中部的特大城市郑州和武汉成为了8月份表现最抢眼的城市,郑州在出了几个“地王”之后,终于在8月份以5.6%的涨幅跃居70个大中城市的首位。一系列数据也显示,在房价和地价比翼齐飞的同时,这些城市的库存也在明显下滑。   尴尬的是,在市场偏离去库存主题的同时,热点城市重新祭出的降温政策,无论是限购,还是限贷,都成了解读未来走势的反向指标。凡是限购限贷的地方,都引发了更进一步的上涨和恐慌性的购买,市场走到今天,的确值得研究。从今年房价上涨的原因看,除了在去库存的主题下房地产政策的刺激,以及货币政策的配合之外,从今年全球和中国经济的大周期看,在全球经济复苏仍然乏力的情况下,外围市场不断扩容的负利率政策引发的资产荒也是资金大量进入房地产的主要原因,不仅仅是中国的资金,全球的资金都在寻找安全资产。这样,在国内制造业仍然面临困难的情况下,一二线城市的房地产就成了大量资金流入的首选。7月份引人关注的金融数据就是一个明证:人民币贷款单月增加4636亿元,但居民中长期贷款就增加了4773亿元,居民新增中长期贷款绝大多数就是房贷。   在居住和投资需求都扩张的情况下,重新拿出限购等举措想为房地产市场降温,短期来看效果不大。由于居住和投资需求的急剧扩张,增加热点城市的供应成了房地产市场的当务之急。保证供应的关键是保证土地供应,避免高杠杆拿地和一些地方政府搞饥饿营销。今年土地市场之所以“地王”频出,根本原因是土地供应少。上海前七个月土地供应只完成了计划的30%,北京已经连续3个月没有供应一块住宅用地,热点城市都存在土地供应紧张的问题。   除了一些地方政府人为控制土地供应,搞饥饿营销之外,拿地的房地产企业都是通过高杠杆的方式推高地价。以上海最贵的“地王”创造者融信中国为例,其2015年销售收入不过295亿元,但其今年土地购置总价却超过了345亿元,杠杆之高,令人咋舌。当前房地产最大的泡沫不是房价泡沫,而是土地市场泡沫。不在土地供应和土地市场去杠杆上下功夫,用最懒惰的限购等办法为房地产市场降温,遑论治本,连标都治不了。   这样,今年房价上涨的逻辑就基本清楚了:去库存的房地产政策是第一推手,为稳增长释放出来的货币成了最大的助力,高杠杆拿地导致“地王”频出,最后,没有及时调整的土地政策大大强化了未来房价上涨的预期。这几乎意味着,靠限购政策进行降温几乎是不可能完成的任务。   笔者一直呼吁,中国房地产政策的思路真的该变了。面对中国房地产市场今非昔比的规模和房价绝对值,任何政策都应该在兼顾当下的同时,注重长远。哪怕我们在长效机制的建设上可以拖延,但最起码在有针对性的解决当下问题的措施上应该有点针对性和技术含量,体现治理水平。在面粉贵过面包、土地供应短缺、库存告急的情况下,任何限贷限购措施都只会引发新的恐慌。   每一次限购政策不仅无法为市场降温,反而成了助推房价再次上涨的利器,买房者和政策进行反向博弈,房地产政策陷入了真正的“塔西陀陷阱”。从过去的历史看,限购政策真正见效的滞后期差不多是6个月时间,这意味着市场真正降温要在明年上半年了。如果现在不及时增加土地供应,不降低房企拿地的杠杆,不治理人为调控出来的“地王”,市场在未来半年内可能还会继续疯狂,加重资产价格泡沫的危险。   来源:功夫财经(kongfuf) 资料图。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: